Facebook Ads Scaling Roadmap
SKILL.md
HOW_TO_USE.md
sample_input.json
expected_output.json
skillsfacebook-adsSKILL.md
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# Facebook Ads Scaling Roadmap
Scale fast, break things—then spend months fixing them. Or scale smart and keep winning.
## Core Philosophy
**Scaling isn't just "spending more money." It's a system that has to grow together.**
When you double your budget, you need:
- More audiences (your current ones will saturate)
- More creative (fatigue accelerates at higher spend)
- Better tracking (small leaks become big drains)
- Adjusted expectations (CPA will rise, at least temporarily)
**The #1 scaling mistake: Going too fast.** You find a winning ad, throw $10k at it overnight, and watch CPA triple. The algorithm needs time to learn at each budget level. Your audiences need time to replenish. Your creative needs time to be tested.
**Sustainable scaling is boring.** It's 20-30% increases, waiting a week, then doing it again. It's always having creative in the pipeline. It's monitoring for diminishing returns before they hit.
---
## Required Context
### Must Have
1. **Current State**
- Current daily/monthly spend
- Current CPA and/or ROAS
- Number of campaigns/ad sets
- How long at current spend level?
2. **Scaling Goal**
- Target daily/monthly spend
- Timeline (how fast do you need to scale?)
- Can CPA increase? By how much?
- Hard budget ceiling?
3. **Performance Baseline**
- Best performing campaigns
- Best performing audiences
- Best performing creative
- Current bottlenecks
### Strongly Recommended
4. **Resource Inventory**
- Creative production capacity
- Budget flexibility (fixed or flexible?)
- Team capacity for management
- Existing audiences available
5. **Historical Data**
- Past scaling attempts (what happened?)
- CPA at different spend levels
- Audience saturation signals
### Nice to Have
6. **Business Context**
- Seasonality expectations
- Product/offer changes planned
- Competitive landscape
- LTV data for acceptable CPA
---
## Scaling Framework
### Phase 0: Scaling Readiness Assessment
**Before You Scale Checklist:**
| Requirement | Status | If No, Fix First |
|-------------|--------|------------------|
| Pixel + CAPI working | ☐ | Implement proper tracking |
| At least 1 profitable campaign | ☐ | Find winning combination first |
| 50+ conversions/week | ☐ | Need baseline data |
| At least 3 working ads | ☐ | Need creative diversity |
| Creative production pipeline | ☐ | Will need constant refresh |
| Budget approved | ☐ | Get commitment before planning |
**Scaling Readiness Score:**
| Score | Criteria | Verdict |
|-------|----------|---------|
| 🟢 Ready | All boxes checked | Proceed with scaling |
| 🟡 Almost | 1-2 gaps | Address gaps, then scale |
| 🔴 Not Ready | 3+ gaps | Stabilize before scaling |
---
### Phase 1: Current State Analysis
**Efficiency at Current Spend:**
| Metric | Current | At 2x Spend (Est.) | At 3x Spend (Est.) |
|--------|---------|--------------------|--------------------|
| CPA | $X | +10-20% | +20-40% |
| ROAS | X.Xx | -10-15% | -15-25% |
| CVR | X% | Similar | -5-10% |
**Why CPA increases when scaling:**
1. You exhaust the lowest-hanging fruit first
2. Algorithm reaches beyond your best prospects
3. Frequency increases on finite audiences
4. Creative fatigues faster at higher spend
**Acceptable CPA Increase Calculation:**
```
If current CPA = $40 and LTV = $150
Current profit per customer = $110
At 2x spend, if CPA goes to $48:
Profit per customer = $102
Still profitable? ✅ Yes
At 3x spend, if CPA goes to $60:
Profit per customer = $90
Still profitable? ✅ Yes, but monitor closely
```
---
### Phase 2: Scaling Speed Framework
**Scaling Speed Options:**
| Speed | Budget Increase Rate | CPA Impact | Best For |
|-------|---------------------|------------|----------|
| Conservative | 15-20% per week | Minimal (+5-10%) | Protecting efficiency |
| Moderate | 25-30% per week | Moderate (+10-20%) | Balanced growth |
| Aggressive | 40-50% per week | Significant (+20-40%) | Speed priority |
| YOLO | 100%+ overnight | Severe (+50%+) | Never recommended |
**Recommended Approach: Moderate (25-30% per week)**
**Scaling Math Example:**
- Current spend: $200/day
- Target spend: $1,000/day
- At 30% weekly increases:
- Week 1: $260/day
- Week 2: $338/day
- Week 3: $440/day
- Week 4: $572/day
- Week 5: $743/day
- Week 6: $966/day
- **~6 weeks to reach target**
---
### Phase 3: Budget Progression Plan
**Budget Milestones:**
| Spend Level | What Changes | Key Challenges | Actions Required |
|-------------|--------------|----------------|------------------|
| $100-300/day | Testing phase | Finding winners | Test audiences, creative |
| $300-500/day | Early scaling | Maintaining efficiency | Add winning audiences |
| $500-1000/day | Growth phase | Audience saturation | Expand LALs, new creative |
| $1000-2000/day | Scale phase | Creative fatigue | High-volume creative production |
| $2000-5000/day | Mature scale | Diminishing returns | Broad targeting, new channels |
| $5000+/day | Enterprise | Incremental gains hard | Brand building, full funnel |
**Budget Allocation by Phase:**
| Component | Early ($100-500) | Growth ($500-2k) | Scale ($2k+) |
|-----------|------------------|------------------|--------------|
| Prospecting | 70% | 65% | 60% |
| Retargeting | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Testing | 10% | 10% | 15% |
---
### Phase 4: Audience Expansion Strategy
**Audience Scaling Sequence:**
| Step | Action | When |
|------|--------|------|
| 1 | Max out current winning audiences | First |
| 2 | Expand LAL % (1% → 2% → 3%) | When 1% saturates |
| 3 | Test new LAL sources | When current LALs plateau |
| 4 | Add interest-based prospecting | For additional reach |
| 5 | Test Advantage+ / Broad | When have strong pixel data |
| 6 | International expansion | When domestic saturates |
**Audience Saturation Indicators:**
| Signal | Meaning | Action |
|--------|---------|--------|
| CPM rising >20% | Audience getting expensive | Expand audience |
| Frequency >3.0/week | Same people seeing ads repeatedly | Add fresh audience |
| CPA rising while spend flat | Audience quality declining | Test new sources |
| Can't spend full budget | Audience too small | Expand or add audiences |
**New Audience Testing Framework:**
- Allocate 10-15% of budget to testing
- Minimum $50/day per test audience
- Run 7-14 days before judging
- Graduate winners to main budget
---
### Phase 5: Creative Scaling Requirements
**Creative Velocity by Spend Level:**
| Daily Spend | New Ads Needed/Month | Why |
|-------------|---------------------|-----|
| $100-300 | 4-6 | Test to find winners |
| $300-500 | 6-10 | Prevent fatigue |
| $500-1000 | 10-15 | Higher frequency = faster fatigue |
| $1000-2000 | 15-20 | Constant refresh needed |
| $2000+ | 20-30+ | Creative is the main lever |
**Creative Scaling Strategy:**
| Phase | Focus | Creative Types |
|-------|-------|----------------|
| Testing | Find what works | Diverse concepts |
| Scaling | Iterate on winners | Variations of winners |
| Mature | Prevent fatigue | Constant refresh, new angles |
**Creative Production Framework:**
```
Weekly Creative Pipeline:
├── 2-3 new concepts (test new ideas)
├── 2-3 iterations (variations of winners)
└── 1-2 refreshes (update fatigued winners)
Total: 5-8 new ads per week at $1k+/day spend
```
---
### Phase 6: Risk Mitigation
**Scaling Risks & Mitigations:**
| Risk | Likelihood | Impact | Mitigation |
|------|------------|--------|------------|
| CPA spikes severely | Medium | High | Scale gradually, have rollback plan |
| Creative fatigue | High | Medium | Maintain creative pipeline |
| Audience saturation | Medium | Medium | Expand audiences proactively |
| Learning phase reset | Medium | Low | Avoid frequent changes |
| Tracking issues | Low | High | Audit tracking before scaling |
**Rollback Triggers:**
| Signal | Threshold | Action |
|--------|-----------|--------|
| CPA increase | >50% above target for 5+ days | Reduce budget 30% |
| ROAS decline | <50% of target for 5+ days | Reduce budget 30% |
| Delivery issues | Spending <70% of budget | Diagnose, possibly reduce |
| Learning Limited | Multiple ad sets stuck | Consolidate structure |
**Emergency Rollback Plan:**
1. Reduce all budgets by 30%
2. Pause worst performing campaigns
3. Identify cause (creative, audience, tracking, external)
4. Fix root cause before re-scaling
5. Scale back up at slower pace
---
### Phase 7: Timeline & Milestones
**90-Day Scaling Roadmap Template:**
**Days 1-14: Foundation**
- Audit current account
- Fix any tracking issues
- Identify top performers
- Create scaling plan
- Build creative pipeline
**Days 15-30: Early Scaling**
- Increase budget 25% week 1
- Increase budget 25% week 2
- Monitor CPA closely
- Launch first batch of new creative
- Test one new audience
**Days 31-60: Growth Phase**
- Continue 20-30% weekly increases
- Expand to new LAL percentages
- Launch 8-10 new ads
- Consolidate underperformers
- Evaluate and adjust strategy
**Days 61-90: Optimization & Stabilization**
- Reach target spend level
- Stabilize CPA at acceptable level
- Establish ongoing creative cadence
- Document what worked
- Plan next scaling phase
---
## Output Format
```
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
FACEBOOK ADS SCALING ROADMAP
Account: [Account Name]
Created: [Date]
Timeline: [X Days/Weeks]
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
📊 SCALING OVERVIEW
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
| Metric | Current | Target | Change |
|--------|---------|--------|--------|
| Daily Spend | $[X] | $[X] | +[X]% |
| Monthly Spend | $[X] | $[X] | +[X]% |
| Target CPA | $[X] | $[X] | [Acceptable increase] |
| Timeline | - | [X weeks] | - |
**Scaling Approach:** [Conservative/Moderate/Aggressive]
**Weekly Increase Rate:** [X]%
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
✅ READINESS ASSESSMENT
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
| Requirement | Status | Notes |
|-------------|--------|-------|
| Tracking (Pixel + CAPI) | [✅/⚠️/❌] | [Notes] |
| Profitable campaigns | [✅/⚠️/❌] | [Notes] |
| Conversion volume | [✅/⚠️/❌] | [Notes] |
| Creative diversity | [✅/⚠️/❌] | [Notes] |
| Creative pipeline | [✅/⚠️/❌] | [Notes] |
| Budget approved | [✅/⚠️/❌] | [Notes] |
**Readiness Score:** [🟢 Ready / 🟡 Almost / 🔴 Not Ready]
**Pre-Scaling Actions Required:**
- [ ] [Action if any gaps]
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
📈 BUDGET PROGRESSION
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
| Week | Daily Budget | Weekly Spend | Cumulative | Milestone |
|------|--------------|--------------|------------|-----------|
| Current | $[X] | $[X] | - | Baseline |
| Week 1 | $[X] | $[X] | $[X] | [Milestone] |
| Week 2 | $[X] | $[X] | $[X] | [Milestone] |
| Week 3 | $[X] | $[X] | $[X] | [Milestone] |
| ... | ... | ... | ... | ... |
**Budget Distribution:**
| Component | % | Daily $ | Notes |
|-----------|---|---------|-------|
| Prospecting | [X]% | $[X] | [Notes] |
| Retargeting | [X]% | $[X] | [Notes] |
| Testing | [X]% | $[X] | [Notes] |
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
👥 AUDIENCE EXPANSION PLAN
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
**Audience Scaling Sequence:**
| Priority | Audience | Current Status | Action | Timeline |
|----------|----------|----------------|--------|----------|
| 1 | [Audience] | [Status] | [Action] | Week [X] |
| 2 | [Audience] | [Status] | [Action] | Week [X] |
| ... | ... | ... | ... | ... |
**New Audiences to Test:**
- [ ] [Audience 1] - Week [X]
- [ ] [Audience 2] - Week [X]
**Saturation Monitoring:**
- Check frequency weekly (target: <3.0)
- Monitor CPM trends (flag if >20% increase)
- Watch for delivery issues
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
🎨 CREATIVE REQUIREMENTS
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
**Creative Velocity Needed:**
- New ads per month: [X]
- New ads per week: [X]
**Creative Calendar:**
| Week | New Concepts | Iterations | Refreshes | Total |
|------|--------------|------------|-----------|-------|
| 1-2 | [X] | [X] | [X] | [X] |
| 3-4 | [X] | [X] | [X] | [X] |
| ... | ... | ... | ... | ... |
**Creative Production Checklist:**
- [ ] Source [X] new UGC creators
- [ ] Brief [X] new concepts
- [ ] Create variations of top performers
- [ ] Schedule refresh of aging creative
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
⚠️ RISK MITIGATION
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
**Scaling Risks:**
| Risk | Mitigation | Trigger for Action |
|------|------------|-------------------|
| CPA spike | Scale gradually, monitor daily | >40% increase for 5 days |
| Creative fatigue | Maintain pipeline | CTR drops >20% |
| Audience saturation | Expand proactively | Frequency >3.0 |
**Rollback Plan:**
If CPA exceeds $[X] for 5+ consecutive days:
1. Reduce all budgets by 30%
2. Pause lowest performers
3. Diagnose root cause
4. Resume scaling at slower pace
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
📅 PHASE-BY-PHASE ROADMAP
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
### PHASE 1: Foundation (Days 1-14)
**Goal:** Prepare for scaling
- [ ] [Task 1]
- [ ] [Task 2]
- [ ] [Task 3]
**Success Criteria:** [What defines completion]
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
### PHASE 2: Early Scaling (Days 15-30)
**Goal:** First budget increases
- [ ] [Task 1]
- [ ] [Task 2]
- [ ] [Task 3]
**Success Criteria:** [What defines completion]
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
### PHASE 3: Growth (Days 31-60)
**Goal:** Reach mid-point of target
- [ ] [Task 1]
- [ ] [Task 2]
- [ ] [Task 3]
**Success Criteria:** [What defines completion]
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
### PHASE 4: Optimization (Days 61-90)
**Goal:** Reach and stabilize at target
- [ ] [Task 1]
- [ ] [Task 2]
- [ ] [Task 3]
**Success Criteria:** [What defines completion]
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
📊 SUCCESS METRICS
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
**Key Performance Indicators:**
| KPI | Target | Review Frequency |
|-----|--------|------------------|
| Daily spend vs plan | Within 10% | Daily |
| CPA vs target | Within 20% | Weekly |
| Creative pipeline status | On track | Weekly |
| Audience health | No saturation signals | Weekly |
**Weekly Check-in Questions:**
1. Are we hitting spend targets?
2. Is CPA within acceptable range?
3. Do we have enough creative in pipeline?
4. Are audiences showing saturation?
5. Any risks requiring attention?
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
```
---
## Common Scenarios
### Scenario 1: "Need to 5x budget in 2 weeks"
**Problem:** Too fast. Will break everything.
**Reality Check:** 5x in 2 weeks = ~60% increase per day. CPA will likely 2-3x.
**Alternative:** 5x in 6-8 weeks with 30% weekly increases. Sustainable growth.
**Verdict:** Push back on timeline or accept significant CPA degradation.
### Scenario 2: "Scaled and CPA doubled"
**Diagnosis:** Scaled too fast, and/or hit diminishing returns.
**Fix:**
1. Roll back 30-40% to find stable level
2. Let CPA stabilize for 7 days
3. Identify which campaigns/audiences broke
4. Resume scaling slower with fixes
**Verdict:** Find your efficient frontier, then push it gradually.
### Scenario 3: "Creative keeps dying when I scale"
**Diagnosis:** Creative fatigues faster at higher spend. Not enough volume.
**Fix:**
1. Calculate creative velocity needed (see framework)
2. Build pipeline to match
3. Scale creative production before scaling spend
**Verdict:** Can't scale spend without scaling creative production.
### Scenario 4: "I've scaled before and it always fails"
**Diagnosis:** Likely combination of: too fast, not enough creative, not enough audience depth.
**Fix:**
1. Follow conservative scaling speed
2. Build 6-week creative pipeline before starting
3. Have 3-4 audience expansion options ready
4. Set clear rollback triggers
**Verdict:** Slower, more prepared scaling usually works.
---
## Limitations
1. **Cannot guarantee scaling success** - Market conditions, competition vary
2. **Cannot predict exact CPA at scale** - Estimates based on patterns
3. **Cannot control external factors** - iOS changes, competition, seasonality
4. **Creative production not included** - Framework only, execution is separate
5. **Assumes current campaigns are profitable** - Can't scale unprofitable campaigns to profit
6. **Budget doesn't guarantee results** - Spend more ≠ always get more
---
## Quality Checklist
Before delivering roadmap:
- [ ] Readiness assessment completed
- [ ] Realistic scaling timeline (not too aggressive)
- [ ] Budget progression week-by-week
- [ ] Audience expansion sequence defined
- [ ] Creative velocity requirements calculated
- [ ] Rollback triggers and plan documented
- [ ] Phase-by-phase actions specified
- [ ] Success metrics defined
- [ ] Risk mitigation included
ReadyFacebook Ads Scaling Roadmap
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