Ad Creative Fatigue Detector
SKILL.md
HOW_TO_USE.md
sample_input.json
expected_output.json
skillscreativeSKILL.md
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# Ad Creative Fatigue Detector
Your best ad today is tomorrow's worst performer. Catch fatigue before it kills your CPA.
## Core Philosophy
**Creative fatigue is inevitable.** Every ad has a lifecycle. The question isn't if it will fatigue—it's when, and whether you'll catch it in time.
**The Fatigue Trap:** Most advertisers notice fatigue after it's already cost them thousands. By the time CPA spikes, the damage is done.
**The Three Laws of Creative Fatigue:**
1. **Frequency is the leading indicator:** High frequency = fast fatigue
2. **CTR decays before CPA spikes:** Watch click-through rate, not just cost
3. **Winners fatigue fastest:** Your best ads get the most impressions—and burn out quickest
---
## Required Context
### Must Have
**1. Creative Performance Data**
For each active ad/creative:
- Ad name or identifier
- Format (video, image, carousel, etc.)
- Impressions (total or daily)
- Click-through rate (CTR)
- Days running
- Current CPA or conversion rate
**2. Time Series Data**
At minimum:
- Performance by week (CTR and/or CPA)
- OR performance comparison: first 7 days vs. last 7 days
### Strongly Recommended
**3. Engagement Metrics (especially for video)**
- Hook rate / thumb-stop rate (% watched 3+ seconds)
- Average watch time or % completion
- Engagement rate (likes, comments, shares)
**4. Frequency Data**
- Ad-level or ad set-level frequency
- Audience size
- Days since launch
**5. Platform Context**
- Which platform (Meta, Google, TikTok, LinkedIn)
- Campaign type (prospecting vs. retargeting)
- Audience type (broad vs. narrow)
### Nice to Have
- Historical performance of similar creatives
- Baseline metrics for this account/vertical
- Creative refresh history (when were new ads added?)
- Seasonal context
---
## Fatigue Detection Framework
### Primary Fatigue Indicators
**Indicator 1: CTR Decay**
The most reliable early warning sign.
| CTR Change | Fatigue Level | Action |
|------------|---------------|--------|
| Stable (±10%) | None | Monitor |
| -10% to -20% | Early | Prepare rotation |
| -20% to -35% | Moderate | Rotate within 1 week |
| -35% to -50% | Severe | Rotate immediately |
| >-50% | Critical | Pause, replace now |
**Indicator 2: Frequency Threshold**
Platform-specific thresholds where fatigue accelerates:
| Platform | Prospecting | Retargeting | Critical |
|----------|-------------|-------------|----------|
| Meta | 2.5-3.0 | 4.0-5.0 | >6.0 |
| TikTok | 3.0-4.0 | 5.0-6.0 | >7.0 |
| LinkedIn | 4.0-5.0 | 6.0-8.0 | >10.0 |
| Google Display | 3.0-4.0 | 5.0-6.0 | >8.0 |
| YouTube | 2.0-3.0 | 3.0-4.0 | >5.0 |
**Indicator 3: Hook Rate Decay (Video)**
For video ads, watch the first 3 seconds.
| Hook Rate Change | Status |
|------------------|--------|
| -0% to -15% | Normal variance |
| -15% to -30% | Early fatigue |
| >-30% | Severe fatigue |
**Indicator 4: CPA Inflation**
Lagging indicator—by the time CPA rises, you've already lost money.
| CPA Change | Status |
|------------|--------|
| +0% to +15% | Acceptable variance |
| +15% to +30% | Fatigue likely present |
| >+30% | Fatigue confirmed |
---
### Fatigue Velocity Factors
**Factors that accelerate fatigue:**
| Factor | Impact | Why |
|--------|--------|-----|
| Narrow audience | Fast fatigue | Same people see ad repeatedly |
| High spend | Fast fatigue | Burns through audience quickly |
| Retargeting | Fast fatigue | Small pool, high frequency |
| Single creative | Fast fatigue | No variety to spread impressions |
| Static image | Moderate fatigue | Less engaging than video |
| Viral creative | Fast fatigue | Algorithm pushes hard, burns fast |
**Factors that slow fatigue:**
| Factor | Impact | Why |
|--------|--------|-----|
| Broad audience | Slow fatigue | Fresh eyeballs continuously |
| Multiple creatives | Slow fatigue | Impressions spread across ads |
| Video content | Slower fatigue | More engaging, longer view time |
| Lower frequency cap | Slow fatigue | Limits exposure per person |
| Dynamic creative | Slow fatigue | Variations extend lifespan |
---
### Creative Lifecycle Model
```
PERFORMANCE
│
│ ╭──────╮
│ ╱ ╲ ← Learning → Peak → Fatigue
│ ╱ ╲
│ ╱ ╲
│╱ ╲
│ ╲
└─────────────────────────────────── TIME
|← Learning →|← Peak →|← Fatigue →|← Exhausted →|
(1-2 wks) (2-6 wks) (2-4 wks) (pause)
```
**Typical Creative Lifespans by Platform:**
| Platform | Prospecting | Retargeting |
|----------|-------------|-------------|
| Meta | 3-6 weeks | 2-4 weeks |
| TikTok | 2-4 weeks | 1-3 weeks |
| LinkedIn | 6-10 weeks | 4-6 weeks |
| Google Display | 4-8 weeks | 3-5 weeks |
| YouTube | 4-8 weeks | 3-5 weeks |
---
## Fatigue Scoring Model
### Calculate Fatigue Score (0-100)
```
Fatigue Score = (CTR Decay Score × 0.4) +
(Frequency Score × 0.3) +
(Age Score × 0.2) +
(CPA Score × 0.1)
```
**CTR Decay Score (0-100):**
- No decay: 0
- 10% decay: 25
- 20% decay: 50
- 35% decay: 75
- 50%+ decay: 100
**Frequency Score (0-100):**
- Below threshold: 0
- At threshold: 50
- 50% above threshold: 75
- 2x threshold: 100
**Age Score (0-100):**
- <2 weeks: 0
- 2-4 weeks: 25
- 4-6 weeks: 50
- 6-8 weeks: 75
- >8 weeks: 100
**CPA Score (0-100):**
- At or below baseline: 0
- 15% above: 25
- 30% above: 50
- 50% above: 75
- >50% above: 100
**Interpretation:**
| Score | Status | Action |
|-------|--------|--------|
| 0-25 | Fresh | Monitor weekly |
| 26-45 | Healthy | Prepare backup creative |
| 46-65 | Early Fatigue | Rotate within 2 weeks |
| 66-80 | Moderate Fatigue | Rotate within 1 week |
| 81-100 | Severe Fatigue | Pause/rotate immediately |
---
## Output Format
### Creative Fatigue Report
```
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
CREATIVE FATIGUE ANALYSIS
Platform: [Platform]
Analysis Period: [Date Range]
Total Creatives Analyzed: [X]
Creatives Needing Rotation: [X]
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
```
---
### Fatigue Summary Dashboard
**Overall Creative Health: [HEALTHY/WARNING/CRITICAL]**
```
Creative Status Distribution:
Fresh (0-25): ████████ [X] creatives
Healthy (26-45): ██████ [X] creatives
Early Fatigue (46-65): ████ [X] creatives
Moderate Fatigue (66-80): ██ [X] creatives
Severe Fatigue (81-100): █ [X] creatives
```
**Urgent Attention Required:** [X] creatives need immediate rotation
---
### Creative-Level Analysis
**CRITICAL - Rotate Immediately:**
| Creative | Format | Days Live | Fatigue Score | CTR Decay | Frequency | Action |
|----------|--------|-----------|---------------|-----------|-----------|--------|
| [Name] | [Format] | [X] | [X]/100 | -[X]% | [X] | Pause now |
**WARNING - Rotate Within 1 Week:**
| Creative | Format | Days Live | Fatigue Score | CTR Decay | Frequency | Action |
|----------|--------|-----------|---------------|-----------|-----------|--------|
| [Name] | [Format] | [X] | [X]/100 | -[X]% | [X] | Prepare rotation |
**MONITOR - Early Signs:**
| Creative | Format | Days Live | Fatigue Score | CTR Decay | Frequency | Status |
|----------|--------|-----------|---------------|-----------|-----------|--------|
| [Name] | [Format] | [X] | [X]/100 | -[X]% | [X] | Watch CTR |
**HEALTHY - No Action:**
| Creative | Format | Days Live | Fatigue Score | Status |
|----------|--------|-----------|---------------|--------|
| [Name] | [Format] | [X] | [X]/100 | Performing well |
---
### Detailed Creative Analysis
**[Creative Name]**
```
Status: [CRITICAL/WARNING/MONITOR/HEALTHY]
Fatigue Score: [X]/100
Performance Timeline:
Week 1: CTR [X]% | CPA $[X] | Freq [X] ← Baseline
Week 2: CTR [X]% | CPA $[X] | Freq [X] | Change: [X]%
Week 3: CTR [X]% | CPA $[X] | Freq [X] | Change: [X]%
Week 4: CTR [X]% | CPA $[X] | Freq [X] | Change: [X]%
Decay Analysis:
- CTR: [X]% → [X]% ([X]% decline)
- CPA: $[X] → $[X] ([X]% increase)
- Frequency: [X] (vs [X] threshold)
Diagnosis: [Why this creative is fatiguing]
Recommendation: [Specific action]
```
---
### Video Creative Analysis (if applicable)
| Video | Hook Rate Wk1 | Hook Rate Now | Decay | Avg Watch Time | Status |
|-------|---------------|---------------|-------|----------------|--------|
| [Name] | [X]% | [X]% | -[X]% | [X]s | [Status] |
**Video-Specific Insights:**
- [Insight about hook rate patterns]
- [Insight about watch time degradation]
---
### Campaign/Ad Set Context
**High-Risk Ad Sets (accelerating fatigue):**
| Ad Set | Audience Size | Frequency | Creatives | Risk Level |
|--------|---------------|-----------|-----------|------------|
| [Name] | [X]M | [X] | [X] | HIGH |
**Notes:** [Why these ad sets are burning creative faster]
---
### Rotation Schedule
**Immediate (This Week):**
1. [ ] Pause [Creative Name] - Fatigue score [X]
2. [ ] Replace with [new creative type/angle]
**Next Week:**
1. [ ] Prepare rotation for [Creative Name]
2. [ ] Test [X] new variations of [winning angle]
**2-3 Weeks:**
1. [ ] Monitor [Creative Name] for fatigue signs
2. [ ] Have backup ready for [Creative Name]
---
### Creative Pipeline Recommendations
**Current Velocity:**
- Creatives launched last 30 days: [X]
- Average creative lifespan: [X] weeks
- Rotation rate needed: [X] new creatives per week
**Recommended Pipeline:**
- Always have [X] creatives in testing
- Plan [X] new creatives per week
- Keep [X] proven concepts ready for iteration
**Creative Types to Test:**
Based on what's fatiguing:
1. [Recommendation based on analysis]
2. [Recommendation based on analysis]
3. [Recommendation based on analysis]
---
### Fatigue Prevention Strategies
**For This Account:**
1. [Specific strategy based on analysis]
2. [Specific strategy based on analysis]
3. [Specific strategy based on analysis]
**General Best Practices:**
- Set frequency caps on prospecting (3.0 for Meta)
- Run 3-5 creatives per ad set minimum
- Iterate on winners before they fatigue (variations)
- Monitor CTR weekly, not just CPA
---
## Platform-Specific Guidance
### Meta Ads
- Watch frequency most closely
- Hook rate decay is early warning for video
- Consider Advantage+ Creative for auto-optimization
- Dynamic creative can extend lifespan
### Google Display/YouTube
- Frequency data less granular—use time-based rotation
- Rotate every 6-8 weeks proactively
- Performance Max obscures creative data—check asset reports
### TikTok
- Fastest fatigue of any platform
- Trend-based content fatigues even faster
- Plan 2-week creative cycles
- Hook rate is everything
### LinkedIn
- Slower fatigue due to smaller audiences
- Can run longer before rotation
- But when fatigued, hard to recover
- B2B audiences are finite—refresh matters
---
## Limitations
**I can provide:**
- Fatigue scoring and prioritization
- Rotation schedules and timelines
- Pattern identification
- Prevention recommendations
**I cannot provide:**
- New creative concepts or copywriting
- Visual design or video editing
- Audience strategy (separate skill)
- Attribution analysis
**For better analysis, also provide:**
- Week-over-week performance data (not just current snapshot)
- Frequency data at ad or ad set level
- Hook rate / video metrics if running video
- Audience sizes
---
## Quality Checklist
Before delivering analysis:
- [ ] All creatives scored with consistent methodology
- [ ] Urgency levels clearly indicated
- [ ] Rotation schedule is actionable
- [ ] Platform-specific thresholds applied
- [ ] Root causes identified (not just symptoms)
- [ ] Prevention strategies included
- [ ] Pipeline recommendations based on actual velocity needs
ReadyAd Creative Fatigue Detector
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